We created statistics used to estimate the number of Undocumented Immigrants, individuals experiencing homelessness and individuals in prison in an effort to quantify the deviation of the Marketing File and the Census 2010 counts. The 3 statistics are now based on data from the year 2010 to be more comparable with the latest decennial census. The new estimates are the following:
- The Pew Research Center estimated that 10.2 million adult Undocumented Immigrants were living in the U.S. as of March 2010, of which 81% were Hispanics (8,262,000), 3% were African American (306,000) and 11% were Asian (1,122,000).
- The 2010 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress by The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development estimated that 1,240,200 millions adults experienced homelessness during 2010 federal fiscal year (October 2009-September 2010). Of which 16.4% were Hispanic (203,393) and 37% were African American (458,874).
- The Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated a total of 343,700 adult Hispanic and 584,100 adult African American were prisoners under state or federal jurisdictions on December 31, 2010.
The following table summarized this statistics:
The following table presented the change on counts and percents for the main 3 ethnic groups after including the above statistics to the latest Marketing file run:
According to these results the bias or deviations with respect to the Census 2010 are as follow:
- Hispanic: 0.7 (Census 14.2)
- African American: 0.4 (Census 11.6)
- Asian: 0.4 (Census 4.8)
Notice that the new percent of Hispanics is actually higher than the Census 2010 Hispanic percent; this doesn't mean that the count of Hispanics is greater than the Census (Etech: 28,632,548; Census: 33,346,703). One of the reasons that could potentially explain this difference could be the lack of participation of the Undocumented Immigrants in the Census 2010, this community has always being a hard to count population for the Census Bureau. Undocumented immigrants were scared to fill out the census for obvious reasons and some Hispanic groups such as the National Coalition of Latino Clergy and Christian Leaders (represents more than 20,000 Hispanic churches across the country) told immigrants to boycott the forms (source).
The decrease of Hispanic percent from 15.6% to 14.9% is reflecting the reduction in Undocumented Immigrants in the country, the lowest estimate since 2007. There are many possible factors that contributed to this reduction. Perhaps the deep recession that began in the U.S. economy in late 2007 officially ended in 2009, but recovery has been slow to take hold and unemployment remains high; immigration flows have tended to decrease in previous periods of economic distress. Another factor could be the immigration enforcement and in enforcement strategies, not only by the federal government but also at state and local levels.
The decline in the size of the unauthorized immigrant population from its peak in 2007 appears to be driven mainly by a decrease in the number of such immigrants from Mexico. In 2007, there were an estimated 7 million unauthorized immigrants from Mexico. In 2010, the number of Mexican unauthorized immigrants had declined to 6.5 million. According to the Pew research Center’s estimates, an average of 150,000 unauthorized immigrants from Mexico arrived annually during the period from March 2007 to March 2009, which was 70% below the annual average of 500,000 during the first half of the decade. Deportations have more than doubled over the past decade, reaching almost 400,000 in fiscal 2009, Mexicans have constituted the majority of deportations for at least the past decade. In 2009, more than 70% of deportees were Mexican, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Although many Mexican migrants voluntarily return home each year, there is no evidence that this number has grown in recent years
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